The United States, like many parts of the world, including the UK, is faced with a pressing challenge in the healthcare system– a looming doctor shortage. The North American nation is looking at up to a shortfall of 64,000 doctors by the end of the year, a number projected to soar to 86,000 by 20361.
A recent Sermo survey found that 82% of healthcare professionals have felt the impacts, yet only 14% believe current efforts are enough2. How is the doctor shortage in the US affecting care quality, and what strategies could mitigate the crisis?
Insights from the Sermo community offer answers to these pressing questions.
What does the doctor shortage mean for healthcare?
The doctor deficit has significant implications for healthcare in the US Some of the most affected areas include:
- Primary care doctor shortage: Experts predict a shortage of 17,800 to 48,000 primary care doctors by 2034, with rural areas being most vulnerable3.
- Emergency medicine: In 2023, there were 555 unfilled residency positions in this field4.
- Doctor shortage by speciality: Fields such as cardiology, oncology and pneumology are projected to have a shortage of 3,800 to 13,400 doctors by 20343.
This shortage, while impacting both urban and rural populations, is particularly alarming for rural areas, where access to healthcare is dwindling. These shortages contribute to:
- Longer wait times
- Limited access to critical treatments
- Overworking of doctors
For instance, 35% of doctors surveyed by Sermo are likely to leave their roles in the next five years with 60% of those considering exiting clinical practice altogether2.
Why is there a doctor shortage?
Burnout and increased workload
Doctor burnout is a leading factor driving professionals out of the workforce.
According to McKinsey, burnout is not just about long hours. Doctors who feel they lack control over their schedules are more likely to report burnout, with 66% citing dissatisfaction with their schedules as a primary reason for considering leaving their roles. This issue is particularly pronounced in specialities like emergency medicine, where patient volumes are high1.
A GP in the Sermo Community described the mental strain, saying, “The doctors are not enough, and this has generated a lot of stress, long hours, and illnesses that make them absent from work5.”
Addressing these issues is crucial for retaining doctors and maintaining healthcare standards.
Low compensation and high education costs
Financial strain also plays a significant role in the shortage. 34% of Sermo respondents cite low pay as a significant contributor2.
A McKinsey survey similarly found that 69% of doctors believe higher remuneration would be a strong incentive to stay1. Meanwhile, the high cost of medical education is driving many students away from primary care and toward more lucrative specialities.
One Sermo member pointed out that the growing reliance on less expensive healthcare providers is further complicating the shortage, saying, “Not only is there a shortage of primary care specialists, but there is more reliance on less expensive providers5.”
This trend is pushing highly trained doctors toward higher-paying specialities, leaving primary care underfunded and understaffed. Addressing compensation and educational costs is essential to closing the workforce gap in healthcare.
Loss of autonomy
Many doctors are also being pushed into large healthcare systems, where they have less autonomy.
Between 2019 and 2021, approximately 108,700 doctors transitioned from private practice to employment in larger organisations, driven by the burdens of paperwork, administrative duties, and declining reimbursements6.
One Sermo doctor shared their frustrations, stressing, “If you pay primary care doctors fairly, they will come5.” Restoring autonomy and addressing financial pressures are critical to improving doctor retention and satisfaction.
The continuing impact of COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic worsened the already existing shortages, pushing many professionals to leave the workforce entirely.
84% of respondents in a McKinsey report cited challenges in nursing workforce coverage, and 60% faced shortages in clinical support staff. These shortages, compounded by increased turnover and higher vacancy rates, have created a challenging environment for healthcare delivery7.
Sermo discussions have highlighted the pandemic’s long-lasting effects. As one member said, “The doctors are not enough, and the stress from long hours has led to many becoming ill or absent from work5.”
Even in 2024, the lingering effects of the pandemic continue to drive absences and strain the system, making the shortage more severe and difficult to address.
Political influence
Politics has played a role in exacerbating the doctor shortage crisis. In a poll of 1,200+ Sermo doctors, 64% said political factors have impacted their practices10 – and the demand for healthcare rises, the need for sustainable, long-term solutions becomes ever more urgent.
Join the conversation today.
The doctor shortage is a challenge that affects us all, but solutions come from shared experiences and collaboration.
Join the Sermo community to engage with fellow healthcare professionals, share your insights, and participate in ongoing discussions about finding real-world solutions to this crisis.
